Are Investors Giving Up on BTC?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin futures demand has hit its lowest level since 2024, signaling that many institutional traders are staying cautious.

• Despite lower confidence from bulls, high CME open interest suggests that major institutions have not left the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has gained 10% since retesting $63,000 on Saturday, providing a glimpse of hope for bulls as stock markets moved in a different direction amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, demand for Bitcoin futures has been declining, with open interest reaching its lowest levels since 2024. This trend is causing traders to fear that institutional investors are leaving the market.

The Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest on major exchanges declined to $32 billion on Sunday, down 20% from one month prior. Even if measured in Bitcoin terms to adjust for the recent price decline, the current demand for BTC futures stood at the lowest level since August 2024 at 491,300 BTC. Part of this decline can be explained by the forced liquidations of bulls who were caught by surprise.

The demand for leveraged bullish positions has been largely absent since the $126,200 all-time high in October 2025.

The annualized premium (basis rate) on Bitcoin monthly futures contracts dropped to its lowest level in a year at 2%. Under neutral conditions, the metric should range from 5% to 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. Even more concerning is the fact that the basis rate has failed to sustain bullish levels for the past 12 months, a period that happens to include a 50% rally April to May 2025.

Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold and the stock market has likely shifted investors’ attention away from the cryptocurrency market. Still, it would be far-fetched to claim that institutional investors have exited the market, given that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade over $3 billion per day on average. Among the ETF holders are some of the world’s largest mutual and pension fund managers.

Moreover, there are over $79 billion in Bitcoin held onchain by publicly listed companies, including Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US) and Metaplanet (MPLTF US). Countries such as Bhutan, El Salvador and the United Arab Emirates have also added Bitcoin exposure. One could argue that there is still a long way to go in terms of institutional adoption, but the present situation is very far from zero.

Bitcoin derivatives signal resilience as bulls hesitate

The Bitcoin options market confirms that derivatives continue to function as expected despite repeated failures to reclaim the $72,000 level.

The Bitcoin put-to-call options premium stayed near 0.7 on Monday. This shows that demand for put (sell) options is lower than for call (buy) options. A brief jump in demand for bearish strategies on Friday did not last. Essentially, the options market shows no signs of major trouble or lasting stress from the past few months.

Related: Bitcoin holders show ‘zero panic’ as BTC hits $70K amid Middle East tensions

Derivatives data also shows a lack of confidence among bulls, especially since Bitcoin is trading 45% below its all-time high. However, there is no evidence that institutional players have left the market. The $7.5 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest on the CME is a clear sign of institutional activity. Despite the selling pressure, every short (sell) order must be matched by a long (buy) order, which keeps the market balanced.

Eventually, fear and uncertainty fade as more buyers return, marking the end of a downward trend. While it is unclear if $60,000 was the absolute bottom for this market cycle, Bitcoin has again shown it is a secure asset with a fixed supply. The $1.4 trillion cryptocurrency market has proven its strength and shows no signs of failing.